Mining Digital October 2023 | Page 41

As the world pivots towards a greener future , the focus has largely been on reducing carbon emissions . However , a less-discussed but equally pressing issue is the looming shortage of rare-earth metals , crucial for green technologies . A recent article by Boston Consulting Group ( BCG ) warns that the global demand for rare earths is expected to reach 466 kilotons by 2035 , up from 170 kilotons in 2022 . Tom Butler , Senior Adviser at BCG , formerly CEO of the International Council on Mining and Metals ( ICMM ) and a key contributor to the article , emphasises the gravity of the situation : “ The main point of the article is to highlight an expected critical shortage of rare earths in the near to medium term , which threatens our ability to achieve our decarbonisation objectives . The shortage is compounded by the fact that China dominates the existing supply chain , as a result of which the market is subject to geopolitical risks . It seems increasingly clear that we will not be able to achieve the Paris Agreement ’ s target of limiting temperature increases to no more than 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels . We are running out of time on this .”

The Complexity and Geopolitics of Rare-Earth Mining Rare-earth metals are not as rare as their name suggests : the challenge lies in their extraction and processing . “ Their processing is extremely complex , requiring very skilled personnel ,” Butler notes . “ And the development lead time can be long – at least five years , depending on the location of the deposit , and considerations such as the nature of the ore body , logistics , and the fiscal , legal and permitting framework .” The BCG article suggests that more than
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